Bitcoin's $70K Test Looms as Intermediate Support in New Cycle: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin is likely to test the $70,000 level as intermediate support, a critical threshold where institutional accumulation previously stalled and may now define a new trading range.

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest crypto asset by market cap, is approaching a pivotal technical and psychological test as on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant identifies a clear deterioration in demand fundamentals.

In a report published Friday, the firm’s researchers detailed how spot Bitcoin ETF flows have reversed to a net sell position this quarter and large-holder growth has stalled, signaling that the institutional engines of the prior bull phase are now idling.

This shift is pushing the market toward a key valuation zone near $70,000, a level that served as a major accumulation plateau earlier in the cycle, according to the research firm.

Institutional Demand Begins to Unwind as Market Structure Shifts

According to CryptoQuant's data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, after a historic run of accumulation since their January 2024 debut, became net sellers in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The funds collectively offloaded approximately 24,000 BTC during this period. This selling pressure marks a stark departure from the same quarter in 2024, when these ETFs were voracious net buyers, and underscores a critical shift in institutional sentiment.

Data from SoSoValue shows these ETFs have amassed a staggering cumulative net inflow of over $57 billion since launch, building total net assets exceeding $114 billion.

This relentless institutional demand was a primary pillar of the bull market, absorbing supply and driving prices to new highs. The shift to net selling effectively removes that pillar, leaving a void where once there was consistent, billion-dollar buying pressure.

The slowdown is not confined to ETF flows. CryptoQuant also tracks addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, a cohort that encompasses these funds and corporate treasury holders. Growth within this key wallet bracket has fallen below its long-term trend.

As spot demand cools, derivatives markets are telling a similar story. CryptoQuant points to funding rates for perpetual futures contracts, when viewed on a 365-day moving average, declining to their lowest level since December 2023. In practical terms, this means traders are increasingly unwilling to pay a premium to hold long positions, a classic sign of declining leverage and risk appetite.

Bitcoin Valuation, Price Structure, and the Shape of the Next Phase

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Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average, a long-term technical benchmark that has historically separated bull and bear market phases. This breakdown provides technical confirmation of the weakening structure hinted at by the on-chain data.

CryptoQuant's thesis is that this confluence of evidence points to a completed demand cycle. The firm argues that Bitcoin's four-year cycles are governed by demand cycles rather than being dictated by the halving event itself.

According to their research, the three major demand waves of this cycle, including the U.S. spot ETF launch, the presidential election outcome, and the corporate treasury bubble, have largely exhausted themselves. When demand growth peaks and rolls over, as the data suggests it now has, a bear market tends to follow regardless of supply-side dynamics like the halving.

In his technical analysis, CryptoQuant researcher Moreno DV focused on Bitcoin's NVT Golden Cross, a metric that functions like a Price-to-Earnings ratio by comparing market value to on-chain transaction volume. Recently, this indicator plunged to a reading near -0.58, signaling a period of deep undervaluation where price fell faster than network utility. While it has since recovered to roughly -0.32, indicating a move toward equilibrium, it remains in negative territory.

"The present setup points to a market transitioning from deep undervaluation toward equilibrium, a phase historically associated with accumulation and structurally healthier price discovery, while capital becomes increasingly selective rather than indiscriminately risk-off," Moreno said in a note.

As of this writing, Bitcoin traded near $88,000, holding modest gains on the day but remaining approximately 30% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000.

CryptoQuant's bearish assessment creates a stark contrast with several Wall Street forecasts that remain optimistic for a longer timeframe. Firms like Citigroup and JPMorgan have published base cases pointing to targets above $140,000 in the coming year, while Standard Chartered, though having recently halved its 2026 target, still projects $150,000. Even Bitwise anticipates new all-time highs in 2026.

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