Bitwise Research Validates Ray Dalio’s 15% Gold and Bitcoin Allocation Strategy

A portfolio reflecting Ray Dalio’s gold and bitcoin allocation was evaluated across four equity drawdowns over the past decade. Bitwise compared results against portfolios holding gold alone, bitcoin alone, and a standard 60/40 mix.

In a note addressed to investors earlier this week, Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon and Analyst Mallika Kolar detailed the findings. The research specifically stress-tested a portfolio modification informed by public comments from the Bridgewater Associates founder.

The analysis focused on the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 market declines, periods where the S&P 500 Total Return Index fell more than 10%. For institutional investors, the study provides a data-driven framework for assessing non-correlated assets during periods of systemic stress.

How Gold and Bitcoin Behaved Under Repeated Market Stress

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Dalio’s allocation framework is rooted in his long-standing focus on currency debasement. In public remarks cited by Bitwise, the Bridgewater Associates founder pointed to rising federal debt levels and sustained deficit spending as structural pressures on the U.S. dollar, increasing the appeal of assets historically viewed as stores of value.

During the 2018 drawdown, the S&P 500 Total Return Index fell 19.34%, Bitcoin declined 40.29% in the same period, and spot gold prices rose 5.76%. In the 2020 COVID-19 market collapse between, equities dropped 33.79%. Bitcoin fell 38.10%, and gold declined 3.63%.

During the 2022 downturn, equities slid 24.18% from late December 2021 through mid October 2022 amid inflation pressures, aggressive rate hikes, and disruptions tied to the FTX collapse. Bitcoin declined 59.87% across the period. Gold fell 8.95%, again posting a smaller drawdown than equities and bitcoin.

A similar pattern emerged in early 2025. From Feb. 3 to April 8, equities declined 16.66% following tariff announcements by President Trump and renewed trade tensions. Bitcoin fell 24.39%. Gold gained 5.97% over the same interval.

The study also tracked asset performance following market bottoms. In the year following the 2018 low, equities rose 39.89%, gold gained 18.14%, and Bitcoin increased 78.99%, outperforming equities and gold by a wide margin.

In the recovery following the 2022 selloff, equities gained 22.82% in 2023, gold rose 17.53%, and bitcoin advanced 40.16%. For the 2025 episode, Bitwise noted that the one year recovery window is not complete until April 2026. Meanwhile, equities are up 38.65%, gold has gained 44.79%, and Bitcoin is trailing with a 14.04% surge, according to the Bitwise study.

To account for both drawdowns and recoveries, Bitwise evaluated full-period performance using Sharpe ratios. The portfolio combining gold and bitcoin achieved a Sharpe ratio of 0.679 across the completed cycles, while a traditional 60/40 portfolio had a Sharpe ratio of 0.237 for comparison.

A portfolio holding only gold within the 15% allocation had a Sharpe ratio of 0.436. The bitcoin-only version reached 0.875 but exhibited higher volatility.

Asset managers have already begun translating similar allocation frameworks into regulated products. Earlier this year, 21Shares launched the 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP, trading under the ticker BOLD on the London Stock Exchange, following the UK’s decision to reopen retail access to crypto exchange traded notes.

According to the company, BOLD had $40.1 million in assets under management as of Jan. 12 and a three year Sharpe ratio of 1.79. The product is physically backed, with bitcoin and gold held in cold storage by an institutional custodian. 

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