Bitcoin On Track for Weakest Trading Month Since 2023 as Fed Holds Rates Steady

Bitcoin traded around $64,309 on Friday, holding near the middle of its recent range after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this week and trading activity across spot and derivatives markets remained subdued.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was up 0.35% over the past 24 hours, giving it a market value of about $1.29 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap data. Daily trading volume stood at roughly $27.3 billion.

Research and brokerage firm K33 said July is on track to become bitcoin's weakest month for spot trading activity since November 2023, extending a period of muted participation that has persisted across both cash and derivatives markets.

Average daily spot volume across exchanges tracked by K33 totaled approximately $2.2 billion during July, while the seven-day average slipped to $2.1 billion from the previous week, according to the firm's latest market update.

Activity in derivatives markets also remained restrained. CME bitcoin futures open interest fluctuated between roughly 95,000 BTC and 102,000 BTC during the week and stood near 100,000 BTC ahead of the July contract expiry, levels K33 said have not been seen since 2023.

Perpetual futures positioning changed little over the same period. Total futures and perpetual open interest stood at about $32.1 billion, equivalent to roughly 508,000 BTC, down 2.1% from a week earlier. Funding rates generally remained in a 5% to 7% range, briefly approaching zero during several trading sessions.

Fed keeps Interest Rates Remain Unchanged

The slower trading backdrop followed Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy decision, where officials voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. 

The Federal Open Market Committee said the U.S. economy continued expanding at a solid pace but noted inflation remained above its 2% target, citing higher energy costs and other supply-related pressures.

Bitcoin showed little immediate reaction to the decision, reflecting a broader pause across digital asset markets following the central bank's announcement.

Institutional demand also remained measured despite several days of positive inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. According to SoSoValue data, the funds have attracted about $205 million in net inflows during July, putting the group on track for its smallest monthly intake since the products launched. That follows net outflows of $2.43 billion in May and $4.52 billion in June.

Ether ETFs have fared somewhat better, attracting $342.85 million in July, while XRP and Solana funds sit at $13.61 million and $13.82 million, respectively. The Binance-listed ether-bitcoin pair has surged 11% this month.

The subdued ETF figures contrast with broader institutional participation across crypto markets. Wintermute said institutions accounted for a record 72% of spot trading volume on its over-the-counter desk during the first half of 2026, up from about 61% in the second half of last year.

Outside crypto, equity markets provided a more constructive backdrop for risk assets this week. Microsoft surged about 15% on Thursday following stronger-than-expected earnings, helping lift the Nasdaq more than 2%. 

Meanwhile, AI-related semiconductor stocks, including AMD, Micron, Intel, Applied Materials, and Sandisk also posted double-digit gains. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $65,000 level during the session before easing back toward $64,000.

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JAN MATULA

Founder of Bitcion.Blog

Graduate of Bratislava University of Economics and Business, experienced Forex and Stocks trader since 2008, early Bitcoin investor and crypto trader since 2021.

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