Bitcoin Price Forecast for End of 2026 Stays at $100,000

Standard Chartered has maintained its end-2026 bitcoin price forecast of $100,000, with the bank attributing recent price pressure from Strategy Inc. to market confusion over the company's evolving bitcoin strategy rather than balance sheet concerns.

In a research note published Friday, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, said the market reaction centers on communication surrounding the policy change rather than the company's underlying finances.

Strategy disclosed earlier this month that it sold bitcoin for the first time under its treasury strategy, later expanding the policy by authorizing future sales to fund up to $1.25 billion for reserves supporting its STRC perpetual preferred stock.

The company sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million last week, its largest disposal to date, after previously reporting the sale of 32 BTC in late May. The proceeds were used to replenish reserves and support distributions tied to STRC.

STRC, which carries a 12% annual dividend paid semi-monthly in cash, has about $10 billion of notional outstanding, making it Strategy's largest capital markets instrument. The preferred shares fell as low as $71.25 on June 26, well below their $100 par value, after the company disclosed its initial bitcoin sale.

Standard Chartered expects STRC to trade back toward $100 given its bitcoin backing, which the bank characterized as heavily overcollateralized. Kendrick wrote that effective signaling of the new arrangement should remove the need for Strategy to sell bitcoin by supporting STRC's price.

Meanwhile, Empery Digital disclosed in an 8-K filing that it sold 1,400 BTC for approximately $87.1 million since May 7 at an average price of $62,200. The Nasdaq-listed company said the proceeds will fund a $65 million investment in an AI data center project, repay $10 million of debt and cover legal expenses.

Empery, which raised more than $500 million last year to build its bitcoin treasury after pivoting from electric powersports vehicles, previously accumulated more than 4,000 BTC. Following the sales, it reported holdings of 1,514 BTC, valued at nearly $100 million, along with approximately $74 million in cash.

Bitcoin Diverges from Equities as Altcoin Optimism Builds

Bitcoin advanced to $64,400 on Friday, retesting the price level that rejected the cryptocurrency on Monday, according to CoinMarketCap data. A break above this level would open the path toward the June 15 peak of $67,250.

Ether (ETH) rose 2.6% to $1,790, outperforming bitcoin and attempting to reverse a pattern of sequential lower highs and lower lows.

The cryptocurrency market diverged from U.S. equities, with S&P 500 index futures and Nasdaq 100 futures declining 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, on Friday.

Zcash (ZEC) and Aave (AAVE) each advanced approximately 5%, while Lighter (LIT) extended its advance since May 16 to more than 200%, rising more than 5% on Friday. The decentralized derivatives exchange recently signed an agreement with Robinhood Chain to bring its product to the brokerage platform's 28 million customers, according to company announcements.

Hyperliquid's HYPE token rose 2.8% to $68 on Friday, with a series of higher lows pointing toward a bullish posture, CoinMarketCap data shows. The token had set a record high of $76 last month before a pullback.

AI-focused tokens including Bittensor (TAO) held steady on Friday, lagging behind the broader market advance following a strong first-half performance.

Bitcoin Technical Indicators Signal Momentum Shift

A longer-term version of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram has crossed above zero, according to TradingView data. The standard MACD settings employ 12-day and 26-day averages with a 9-day signal line. The longer parameters, using 50-day and 100-day averages, filter out short-term volatility.

Since October, negative crossovers on this indicator have preceded steeper declines, while positive crossovers have preceded recovery rallies, including the December–January bounce and the February–May bounce.

Key resistance levels identified by traders include the 50-day simple moving average at $65,434, the mid-June high of $67,292, and the 200-day moving average near $71,147.

In Deribit's options market, notional open interest at the $80,000 strike exceeds $1.21 billion, the highest of any strike on the exchange, according to exchange data.

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