Bitcoin Is Paving the Way Down to $47,000 and It Can Fall All the Way to $8,000! Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
Updated: Aug 17
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As of the time this article was written, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating around $64,000. The weekly chart shows a notable downtrend, marked by two significant pullbacks during the decline, with very strong rejection evidenced by long red candles. It appears that Bitcoin's price is likely to keep falling. As it can bee seen on below chart the price closed on the weekly chart under EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, and EMA 200, which again signals a strong downtrend. From now on all the EMAs will, on the way up, act as strong resistances, especially EMA 200 (thick orange line on the chart below).
Ascending again will not be easy. It will need a lot of strength, which must come from some source. It will require positive macroeconomic data, strong investor confidence, positive developments in the cryptocurrency market, favorable regulatory news, and other stimuli. For short-term investors, this means they should not expect quick gains, and anyone considering investing in Bitcoin must understand that it will take a significant amount of time to see a profit from the investment.
As it can be seen on below chart actually we are trading around 50% down from A-T-H leaving many investor in red numbers. The question which they probably ask is if the should keep open lose and hoping for rebound or close the lose on try to use the reminder of capital in more effective way.
All we can say is that returning to A-T-H will be not an easy process
Another key indicator is the POC, or point of control, which represents the price where the highest volume of buying and selling occurred. At this price point, the majority of trades happened due to the presence of numerous buyers and sellers, signifying a balance and equilibrium in the market. Both parties see this as a favorable trading opportunity.
The chart below highlights the POC at $65,000, suggesting that the market has accepted this price level as fair market value, bringing it into equilibrium. From here, there are only two possibilities: movement upwards or downwards. While we may stay in equilibrium for several more weeks, a significant movement is eventually expected.
The longer the equilibrium persists, the stronger the eventual breakout will be. In the next section, we will examine potential future price developments, both positive and negative.
Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis Weekly Chart
Below, we outline two scenarios for the upcoming months. You will find two charts with a bold white line labeled "BRAKING POINT LINE." This line assists us in determining which scenario is more probable. If the price drops below this line and then quickly recovers, it suggests a rebound, and we can anticipate that upward movement will persist.
However, if there is no reaction and the market continues to trade below the line without significant buyer interest, it indicates that this support line is no longer effective, as there aren't enough buyers interested in purchasing Bitcoin at this price. The price will continue to fall until it reaches a level that attracts more buyers.
Positive Scenario
This scenario is at this moment very unlikely and will need very strong market impulses to pull back trough all EMAs and continue upward towards A-T-H and higher. Cryptocurrency market is weak and many major coins are down from A-T-H 80% - 90%. At this point any cryptocurrency is highly risky asset with no guarantee to ever see invested money back. Investor should invest only small percentage of their free capital to Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies and have in mind they can loose all the capital invested in cryptocurrencies.
At this stage of cryptocurrency market it is more suitable to do intraday and swing trading either margin trading or futures where trades can open long or short position and doesn't depend on upwards movements.
Major Cryptocurrencies with Significant Declines
Cardano or ADA 12th biggest coin by market capitalization is down -95.76% from A-T-H with no signs for recovery any soon
Solana or SOL 5th biggest coin by market capitalization experienced decline of -79.62% from its A-T-H. Now we are trading little bit above that
Chainlink or LINK 13th biggest coin by market capitalization is another top cryptocurrency with significant drawdown of -86,95% for A-T-H
Dogecoin or DOGE is the 8th biggest coin by market capitalization. Currently trading -86.15% from the peak from September 2025.
This shows the weakness of the whole cryptocurrency market, and the trust of investors in cryptocurrency is shaken, making cryptocurrency extremely risky assets with only a few investors willing to take this risk. This has influence also on Bitcoin, and it is another reason why we are more inclined towards a negative scenario of further decline in Bitcoin price, as we explain in the next step below.
Negative Scenario
Currently, it is highly probable that this scenario will unfold in the coming weeks and months, due to the reasons previously mentioned. Below is the Bitcoin chart with weekly candles. The bold white line, referred to as the BREAKING POINT LINE, serves as a crucial support. If this support is broken, it means we will fall below and continue trading beneath it, indicating that buyers have been overpowered.
The Red line represents potential future price movement, with a strong likelihood of dropping to at least the support level of $27,000, or potentially even lower. We will maintain a close analysis of this possibility.
Negative Scenario Close Analysis
First strong support is apparent only at the price level around $47,000. If the price does not rebound from this level, then it is very likely that the price will continue to the level of $27,000, where a very strong equilibrium was created from July 2023 to July 2024. This act as strong "magnet" and market is very likely heading there to this price it act also as support and we can expect the the price will ranging there for at least a few weeks or months.
It is very likely that the price will continue to decrease to the level of $27,000
This is very likely to happen because the price "flew" from this equilibrium very fast all the way to an all-time high around $125,000. This happened within 2 years, where the price rose around 350%, which is quite a strong gain compared to traditional assets. As mentioned above, this is how the market operates; it tends to return to the equilibrium established in the past.
As shown in the chart below, we are trading below the EMAs 20, 50, 100, and 200, which indicates a significant downtrend. Additionally, the short EMA (20) is crossing the long EMA (200), providing another strong indication of a downtrend. Many traders use this crossing of the short EMA with the long EMA to initiate short positions, anticipating further declines.
We can also identify support levels where the price may potentially rebound, at least temporarily. These are zones with high trading volumes from the past, suggesting potential interest in trading again. It will be a battle between buyers and sellers. If buyers are stronger, the price will rise; if not, we will continue to the support levels below until the price becomes attractive enough for "everyone" to want to buy, which will drive the price up.
This could occur anywhere in the "SUPPORT ZONE," marked by a green rectangle on our chart, with the highest likelihood around the price level of $27,000.
Analyzing the Possibility of Bitcoin Price Going Down All the Way to $8,000
Yes, you read that correctly: $8,000. Below, we will examine the possibility of this happening and illustrate it on a chart.
This scenario is less likely, but there is still a chance it could occur. On the right side of the chart, we can observe low trading volume. The volume profile starts increasing only around $68,000. As the price decreases, the volume profile continues to rise. However, we can see that the highest volume ever recorded for Bitcoin is around $8,000, representing equilibrium—fair value for Bitcoin where most trades were made.
The market tends to return to this point. We can notice a significant difference in this volume compared to the rest of the volume profile. This substantial volume created at the $8,000 price level acts as a strong "magnet," and the market is slowly gravitating back to its origin.
Conclusion
We view a negative scenario as highly probable and wonder how low the price might drop—whether it could be $47,000, $27,000, $16,000, or even lower. Ultimately, Bitcoin remains a young and speculative asset with an unpredictable future; a complete crash to zero is possible.
People should not mistake Bitcoin for a safe investment like gold, the S&P 500, or other conservative investments. And do not be misled by the numerous people referring to Bitcoin as "Digital Gold," which might give the impression of a stable investment. Investors should exercise extreme caution before committing any capital to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. We recommend waiting to see how the situation on crypto market will unfolds.
JAN MATULA
Founder of Bitcion.Blog
Graduate of Bratislava University of Economics and Business, experienced Forex and Stocks trader since 2008, early Bitcoin investor and crypto trader since 2021.
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or investment advice. It is crucial for you to conduct your own research and due diligence to make informed decisions, as any investment will be your sole responsibility. Please review our disclaimer and risk warning.
